Budget Breakdown: Will Police and Immigration Pay the Price for Prison Spending Spree?

From prison overcrowding to police cuts, a deep dive into the government's spending plans

In an in-depth analysis of the government’s latest budget, commentator and former BBC Home Affairs correspondent Danny Shaw has raised questions about the spending plans for policing, justice, and immigration. Shaw, an established voice on criminal justice and security, has highlighted both the potential gains and looming challenges across these key sectors. His observations shed some much-needed light on complex funding allocations and the anticipated impact on services ranging from the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) to neighbourhood policing and immigration management.

Increased Funding for Ministry of Justice – But Is It Enough?

The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) is set to receive a 4.3% real-terms increase in day-to-day funding over the next two years (2023/4–2025/6). This boost will primarily support hiring additional probation and prison staff to address rising prisoner numbers. However, as Danny Shaw notes, a portion of this funding may be offset by increased employer National Insurance (NI) contributions, potentially limiting the budget available for new hires.

Adding to the financial strain, Rupert Lowe MP recently revealed the considerable cost of housing foreign nationals in British prisons, which he estimates to exceed £533 million annually. Lowe expressed frustration at this expense, arguing that the British taxpayer should not shoulder the financial burden of detaining foreign offenders, advocating instead for deportations. These costs add an extra layer of pressure on the justice system’s budget at a time when resources are already stretched.

On the courts' front, the government has committed to funding 106,500 Crown Court sitting days in 2024/5, but there is no confirmed figure for the following year. This uncertainty raises concerns over the government’s commitment to reducing the court backlogs that continue to strain the justice system. Another pressing issue is the stagnation of legal aid rates, which have seen no significant increase despite the need to attract and retain criminal and civil lawyers. Shaw warns that without a rise in rates, the MoJ may struggle to address critical staffing shortages in legal representation.

“It's crucial MoJ funds this,” Shaw emphasised, underlining the need for continuous support in this area.

Infrastructure Investment: Speeding Up Prison Construction

On the capital side, the MoJ is expected to see a 14.9% increase in real terms for funding infrastructure projects through 2025/6. This money is earmarked for prison construction and maintenance, which is critical as the prison population rises. Yet, Shaw questions whether the MoJ can secure planning permissions and start construction quickly enough to meet growing demand.

Increased Funding for CPS and SFO to Digitise Justice

Law Officers’ departments, which include the CPS and Serious Fraud Office (SFO), are set to benefit from a 7.5% increase in real-terms funding until 2025/6. This funding allocation is intended to support prosecutions, including those stemming from the August riots. Additionally, the CPS aims to transition from paper-based documentation to digital systems for jury members—a move expected to streamline and modernise court processes.

Home Office Faces Cuts Amid Ongoing Immigration and Policing Challenges

In contrast to the MoJ’s funding boost, the Home Office is facing a 3.2% reduction in day-to-day spending from 2023/4 to 2025/6. The government has attributed these cuts to projected savings of £4 billion over two years from scrapping the Rwanda scheme - that was supposed to break the business model of criminal gangs who charge up to €10,000 per person to smuggle them into the UK illegally - and speeding up asylum processing and returns. However, with over 30,000 people crossing the Channel so far this year—a 14% increase compared to the same period in 2022—the Home Office may struggle to meet demands while maintaining a tighter budget.

A worrying backlog of 33,200 asylum appeal cases looms. Shaw questions whether the savings will truly help or be absorbed by the pressing demands of processing small boat crossings and managing the asylum caseload.

Police Funding Increase but Rising Costs Threaten Recruitment Goals

The core grant for police forces in England and Wales is set to increase until 2025/6, according to the Home Office. However, police forces will also face higher costs as they contend with increased employer NI contributions, affecting the already stretched policing budget. Shaw notes that, with a total police workforce of 236,500, this added expense will be a “hefty bill” for the government and individual forces alike.

The government has also pledged funding for an additional 13,000 neighbourhood police officers and PCSOs, yet this investment is intended to be sourced from “police efficiencies.” Shaw pointed out the ambiguity in the timeline, as the Treasury’s projections for productivity improvements begin only in 2026/7. The Home Office is keen to deploy these additional neighbourhood officers sooner, but securing the required efficiencies may be challenging.

Long-Term Budget Forecast: Uncertain Times Ahead for Policing and Justice

Looking beyond 2025/6, the fiscal picture appears less optimistic for the MoJ and Home Office. According to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), funding for these “unprotected” departments is set to decline by 1.1% in real terms from 2025/6 to 2028/9. Shaw notes that the situation could worsen if funding is redirected to bolster the Ministry of Defence budget, which remains a government priority.

“For the Home Office, much will depend on police productivity and progress on asylum numbers,” Shaw observed. “For the Ministry of Justice, I can’t see Crown Court backlogs coming down significantly in the next five years.”

The Road Ahead for Policing, Justice, and Immigration

The government’s latest budget offers some financial relief and modernisation plans for the justice sector, but considerable uncertainties remain for policing and immigration. As Shaw outlines, the MoJ’s increased funding must contend with rising operational costs, while the Home Office must achieve efficiency gains amid soaring demand. The Treasury’s pledge for additional neighbourhood policing may take years to materialise, potentially leaving communities without the visibility they seek from local police officers.

With an eye on a turbulent future for these departments, Shaw’s analysis brings to light the significant challenges and potential shortfalls in the government’s approach to maintaining security, administering justice, and managing immigration.

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