Falling Numbers, Rising Risks: The Decline of Armed Police Officers in England and Wales

UK Armed Police Numbers Decline Amid Increasing Risks and Public Scrutiny

Recent Government data highlights a worrying trend: the number of armed officers in England and Wales has now declined for the fifth consecutive year. As of March 2024, the number of armed officers fell to 6,473—a decrease of 3% (178 officers) compared to the previous year.

This news follows the not-guilty verdict for Sgt Blake, whose public naming was argued in court by Associated Newspapers (publishers of The Daily Mail), the BBC, The Guardian, ITN, Reach (publishers of the Mirror, Star, and Express), Sky News, and The Times, despite known threats from the gang associated with Chris Kaba.

The fallout saw numerous CO19 officers surrender their tickets, further straining an already dwindling resource. At a time of increased security concerns and rising crime, this decline raises serious questions about the capacity of the police to handle critical threats effectively.

Fewer Officers, Fewer Discharges, and the Impact of Reduced Firepower

The latest report also reveals a notable statistic: police officers discharged their firearms intentionally only twice in the entire year. This is a significant drop from the previous year, which saw ten intentional discharges.

Despite handling 17,589 firearms operations, police rarely discharged weapons, underscoring the restraint that armed units exercise even when faced with armed and dangerous suspects. Interestingly, this restraint comes at a time when the commentary in the mainstream media often overlooks the risks officers face, and with firearms operations down by 4% from the previous year, fewer officers may mean slower or reduced response capacity to critical situations.

The Complex Landscape of Gun Crime in England and Wales

Contrary to public perceptions about rising gun violence, the proportion of police-recorded offences involving firearms remained low, at approximately 0.2% of all cases. In half of these incidents, firearms were used as threats rather than fired.

Notably, homicides involving firearms have remained consistent, with 28 cases reported in the year ending March 2024, mirroring figures from previous years. Firearm-related crimes, too, have shown a reduction of about 5%, a stark contrast to increases of 2-26% across other crime categories in the same period.

Armed Response Vehicle Operations and Public Perception

Armed Response Vehicles (ARVs) handled 93% of all firearms operations in 2024. These units are vital in providing quick, armed backup across regions. Yet, the falling number of armed officers raises questions about how sustainable these responses will be in the future.

With officers facing scrutiny for using force—even in situations where public safety is at stake—the decreasing force numbers and hesitation in using firearms indicate that tactical capabilities may soon reach a critical limit.

Public Misunderstandings and the Realities of Armed Policing

Public suggestions for officers to “deflate tyres” or “pull suspects out of moving cars” demonstrate a widespread misunderstanding of the risks and tactics involved in armed operations. These ideas, often shared on social media by commentators who have never served in the police force, reflect a lack of awareness of the real-time decisions officers face and the highly specific training required for firearms units.

As officers exercise caution to minimise harm, unsupported criticism from untrained individuals distorts public understanding, undermining officers' decisions in life-threatening scenarios.

The Path Forward

As armed officer numbers continue to decline, it’s clear that the demands on these specialists will only intensify. Armed policing is a critical line of defence, one that protects officers and the public alike. Effective support and realistic expectations are essential if we are to maintain a capable force ready to respond to the most serious threats.

For more information on the report, please refer to the Government report.

The Briefing Room

The Briefing Room offers our insights on this story and many others. With firsthand experience in both the emergency services and armed forces, we bring real-world knowledge to our reporting. As a reader-supported publication, we invite you to become a paid subscriber to help us continue our work—and to gain access to what we really think.

Opening Thoughts

The recent downturn in morale among our Authorised Firearms Officers (AFOs) cannot, and should not, be understated or overlooked. This isn't just about numbers on a roster; it's about the human element—the trust, the courage, and the overwhelming sense of duty these officers carry into every shift.

In the aftermath of events like those involving Sgt Blake…